Bitcoin (BTC) sees a volatile start to a new week and a new month after its first-ever monthly shut above $60,000 — what'south side by side?

After a highly anticipated end to "Uptober," bulls are looking to Nov to provide the next stage of what they hope — and sometimes hope — will exist a BTC toll surge like no other.

The timing varies, and so do the predictions. In shop for BTC/USD this calendar month could be a monthly close of most $100,000 — but also a dip to nearly $50,000.

With everything to play for and solid heir-apparent support in the upper $50,000s holding, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could assist shape Bitcoin price activity in the coming calendar week.

October 2022 becomes best month since 2022

Regardless of what comes side by side, marketplace participants are in a celebratory mood this week as Bitcoin sees the highest monthly close in its history.

Not only $lx,000 but $61,000 has now become the target to beat for November.

Bitcoin is annihilation but "up only" on curt timeframes, however, and Sunday's close was met with noticeable downside volatility post factum — a trip to $59,500 — earlier some other surprise took it higher up $62,000 hours after.

Perhaps slightly nervous are fans of PlanB's "worst-case scenario" price predictions, these calling for at least $63,000 for the cease of October.

While still more or less on track, for the series to keep its historical accuracy, $98,000 needs to exist on the tabular array by the terminate of this month.

For PlanB himself, withal, the results have been more than than satisfactory.

"Yes, Bitcoin might non close above $63K this month," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, added about the situation.

"However, @100trillionUSD his hitrate on the stock-to-flow model is way better than your trading performance, so I wouldn't really roast him at all. Bitcoin at $61K is just as fine and close plenty."

After a correction from overnight lows, BTC/USD is trading at around $62,000. Oct, then, was its best month since December 2022, with returns simply shy of 40%.

BTC/USD one-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Difficulty lines upward eighth straight increase

Those looking for something that truly is in "up only" way need look no further than Bitcoin network fundamentals.

This week, difficulty volition put in its eighth consecutive positive aligning — something which has not happened since 2022.

Reflective of the increasingly competitive mining loonshit, the mining difficulty has now all only made up for the losses information technology necessarily inflicted afterward Communist china forced miners to downwardly tools in May.

Difficulty will increase to 21.89 trillion this calendar week, just over 3 trillion below all-fourth dimension highs.

The hash rate — the measure of processing power dedicated to mining — tells a similar story.

Despite being impossible to "measure" in definitive terms, the hash rate is still trending toward new all-time highs, estimates show.

Raw information trends upward and down, and different estimates oft end upwardly with considerably different readings. The weekly boilerplate hash rate, all the same, at present stands at around 159 exahashes per 2d (EH/south) — closer than ever to the 180 EH/s-record from Apr.

Bitcoin seven-solar day average hash rate chart. Source: Blockchain.com

Hodlers hodl on

September provided a golden "purchase the dip" opportunity for Bitcoin buyers, and October was besides not without its brief retracements.

Did you buy the dip? If you did, you added to the increasingly stiff accomplice of long-term hodlers whose confidence has only increased in October.

As noted in inquiry from major exchange Kraken last week, the cost gains and run to $67,100 all-time highs have failed to tempt hodlers to sell BTC.

"Notably, while long-term holders were unfazed by the retracement final calendar month and used it equally an opportunity to proceed accumulating, this trend has not changed despite a pregnant rebound in price to new all-time highs most $67,000," researchers concluded.

"In other words, the supply daze bought by long-term holders last month has only grown stronger this calendar month."

It is these entities, rather than short-term speculators, who are driving price operation in Q4 this year, they add.

This chimes with a previous analysis, notably by analyst Willy Woo, showing that the and then-called "hodlers of last resort" or "Rick Astley" investors remain committed to their investment. Among the long-term holders, since 2022, are miners themselves.

"Since 2022 miners accept been HODLers (and buyers) of BTC, this is a body of water change in behaviour," Woo noted this weekend.

"Miners accept non been in sustained accumulation behaviour since the 2009–2014 era."
Bitcoin miner supply 1-hop chart. Source: Kraken

Exchange balances lowest since Oct 2022

On the topic of a supply shock, the movie from exchanges is grim — from the perspective of a Bitcoin bear.

According to fresh information from on-chain analytics house Glassnode, exchange BTC reserves are at present at their lowest in three years.

At that time, in late 2022, Bitcoin was heading into the pit of its previous behave market, which bottomed out in December at $3,100.

Since then, toll action has changed by an order of magnitude, merely balances are all the same dwindling — all pointing to the scale of the potential shock should demand increase heavily from here.

Exchanges now command 2.47 one thousand thousand BTC. While at its peak in April 2022, over iii.ane million BTC stood on their orderbooks.

Bitcoin commutation remainder chart. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Residual changes can vary considerably among exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, for instance, Coinbase Pro led the decrease, down almost 20,000 BTC, while some other players saw slight increases in their residue.

Markets expect Fed tapering annunciation

The coming week could produce some familiar trends on traditional markets — and their traditional knock-on impact on crypto markets.

Related: Tiptop five cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, BNB, MATIC, FTM

These could come cheers to fresh comments from the United States Federal Reserve on coronavirus management Tuesday and Wednesday equally markets expect farther cues on nugget-buying tapering.

This comes equally inflation ramps up worldwide, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously admitted that the accompanying narrative — supply chain crisis — will likely persist "well into next twelvemonth."

"I recall the Fed has pretty well determined to start the taper pretty quickly. We look them to announce it side by side week then start it presently thereafter, so that's pretty well carved in stone," Kathy Jones, chief stock-still income strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance last week.

"I retrieve the big debate now is how quickly the Fed moves toward really raising rates. The expectation in the market has really shifted to expecting as many equally two rate hikes in 2022 and 2023... that's a pretty aggressive pace of tightening."

Such atmospheric condition serve to increase Bitcoin'south attractiveness as an inherently deflationary asset class with a mathematically verifiable supply cap.

Institutional inflows into extant Bitcoin investment products, along with the newly launched futures exchange-traded funds (ETF), highlight growing demand.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF avails under management vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Bybt